- Gear up for the next big spectacle in Washington as the debt ceiling comes back into force this weekend following a two-year suspension. The deadline will curb the Treasury's capacity to issue new debt unless lawmakers can reach an agreement, which seems far-fetched at the moment due to the Republican position. GOP leadership contends that Democrats are in a spending free for all and will only support raising the debt ceiling if they promise major spending reforms and cutbacks.
- Analyst commentary: "It is a very slow moving train wreck," outlined Gennadiy Goldberg, rates strategist at TD Securities. "The longer they delay raising the debt ceiling, the more Treasury has to [reduce] bill supply leaving less debt to invest in, particularly on a short-term basis. What you are going to see is more and more pressure on money market rates, which in turn will put pressure on money market funds."
- It's already having some effects. Starting at noon today, the Treasury will use the first of its so-called "extraordinary measures," which will suspend sales of securities that help states and municipalities invest bond proceeds. Others will take months to kick in, and starting in October or November, the Congressional Budget Office predicts the Treasury will run out of cash. While raising the debt ceiling has turned into a bitter partisan issue in recent years, both parties have always reached a late deal to avoid the country going into default.
- Outlook: Many expect a similar scenario this time around and the game of chicken could continue in the coming months. However, if Democrats can't get support from ten Republican senators, they may be forced to increase the debt limit via an upcoming budget reconciliation bill (which only needs a simple majority). They could also advance a vote to raise the debt ceiling along straight party lines before the August recess or tie the debt ceiling to a must-pass funding bill at the end of September.
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